Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Urgent need for action!

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Urgent need for action!

The West Antarctic ice sheet faces crucial years that could have far-reaching consequences for global sea levels. According to a study published in “Communications Earth & Environment” and co-authored by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), among others, a possible collapse of the ice sheet could result in sea level rise of up to four meters over several centuries. The research team, which includes PIK, the Norwegian research center NORCE and Northumbria University, analyzed 800,000 years of model simulations to examine the ice sheet's responses to past climate fluctuations. Two stable states of the ice sheet were identified: one in which the ice sheet is still present and another showing a collapsed state. The main reason for the change between these states is the increase in sea temperatures around Antarctica. The study also shows that the ocean, not the atmosphere, is the heat source for ice melting.

The urgency cannot be overlooked: in order to avoid catastrophic scenarios, immediate measures to reduce emissions are necessary. The research team highlights that ice loss is self-reinforcing and could be difficult to stop. A complete return to a stable state after a collapse could take thousands of years. The realization that the ice sheet can be destabilized in decades, even though it takes tens of thousands of years to grow, makes it clear that rapid action is required. A retreat of the ice sheet could no longer be averted once sea levels reach a rise of four meters, which is considered a tipping point. This is having far-reaching impacts on coastal regions worldwide, with experts warning of the economic consequences.

New hope: ice sheet is growing

While the scenario sounds dramatic, there are also bright spots. According to current Research-and-knowledge The Antarctic ice sheet has reportedly increased in mass for the first time in decades. This positive development has reduced global sea level rise in recent years. A study by Tongji University shows that between 2021 and 2023, ice grew by 107.79 gigatons annually. The reason for this increase is high amounts of precipitation, which have contributed to a record increase in ice mass.

Previous analyzes had shown that the ice sheet, particularly in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, had continued to lose mass, while glaciers in East Antarctica were stable. GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite data show that the ice sheet has turned a corner in 2021 to 2023, despite its previous losses. But the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level rise remains a sensitive issue as glaciers in West Antarctica remain at risk.

Climate change and its effects

Climate change plays a central role in the ice sheet situation. Like that Federal Environment Agency explains, Antarctica has warmed significantly over the last 50 years. The Antarctic Peninsula in particular recorded a temperature increase of 2.6 °C. Adjustments in the ecosystem are noticeable, and this increases the pressure on many species. Not only are krill populations declining, but native bird species are also retreating to cooler areas, while sub-Antarctic species are moving south.

In summary, the fate of the West Antarctic ice sheet is complex and raises many questions. While recent data on an increase in ice mass gives cause for hope, scientists' warnings call for haste in taking action to combat climate change and reduce emissions. There is something to be done – and we all have to do our part.